Author: Long Yue, Wallstreetcn
Driven by the AI boom, Anthropic is preparing an IPO of up to $100 billion, but a tech veteran who has long been bearish on AI has issued a warning: the Anthropic IPO could mark the peak of the AI rally, and the expiration of the lock-up period could trigger a chain reaction of corrections.
Jack Selby, head of venture capital firm Copper Sky and managing partner of Peter Thiel's family office, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday, "If this most anticipated AI company's IPO comes in far below the expected valuation, imagine what happens after the lock-up period expires. A poor-performing Anthropic IPO will surely become a core driver of a rather large-scale correction in the AI market."
Anthropic is currently seeking to raise up to $100 billion in total through an IPO, private placement, and a potential over-allotment option. Initial signs show strong market demand, and reports indicate the offering size may even be further expanded. But Selby is not buying it.
Selby publicly stated more than a year ago that the frenzy surrounding the AI industry may be the largest bubble in private tech investment to date. This time he speaks out again, systematically questioning Anthropic's investment value from three dimensions: valuation logic, competitive landscape, and capital structure.
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Lock-up risk: if the IPO disappoints, a correction may be triggered in a chain reaction
Selby's concern about the Anthropic IPO centers on the potential selling pressure after the lock-up period expires.
If this most anticipated AI company's IPO ultimately values it far below prior expectations, then one can imagine how much downward pressure the stock price may face once the lock-up period expires and more shares become available for sale.
On specific names, Selby singled out SoftBank Group and Oracle as "canaries in the coal mine"—that is, warning signals. He believes Oracle has greater risk exposure due to its higher debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI positions, he recommends turning to Alphabet's Google.
Hidden concerns in revenue structure: more than 80% is non-recurring revenue
Beyond risks at the market sentiment level, Selby also questioned Anthropic's fundamentals.
He pointed out that more than 80% of Anthropic's revenue is non-recurring revenue, making it highly vulnerable to technological advances by competitors. Once competitors narrow the gap to within six or nine months, this revenue structure will face a severe test.
Capital expenditure is likewise a major concern.
This is an extremely capital-intensive business. Data, energy, data centers, chips—all are expensive inputs, and interest rates are no longer near zero.
This is a real business, but it is still in its early stages, and the idea that it is a trillion-dollar company seems extremely far-fetched.
Competitive pressure from China
Selby also took aim at competitive pressure from China, arguing that this is another risk underestimated by the market in Anthropic's valuation logic.
He said that DeepSeek and other Chinese AI models are currently only about six months behind Anthropic, which poses a direct threat to Anthropic.
Selby also said that if conditions permit, he would "go heavily long on Chinese AI." He believes Anthropic cannot claim that all of its business must rely on American models, because most current AI use cases are closer to basic tool-type applications, which provides room for Chinese models to substitute.
