Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, focusing on the crypto market, Japan, South Korea, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, reviewing the market with data and seizing opportunities with trends, produced by PANews.

50-week moving average breach triggers fierce battle between bulls and bears, BTC retreats to 200-day moving average awaiting CPI final judgment

The blowout nonfarm payrolls report cemented expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, and combined with the weekend scandal involving Nvidia's CEO and the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations, the crypto market—the only one open around the clock—was the first to become a cash machine for macro risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin broke out of its sideways range over the weekend, pulling back nearly 16% from its earlier high of $87,000, falling below the $75,000 mark over the weekend and briefly spiking down to around $73,510, before oscillating around $74,500. This weekly candle, with a decline of 4.47%, not only recorded a rare "five consecutive red weeks" but also closed below the 50-week moving average (around $75,500) for the first time since mid-September, with the market entering a high-volatility watershed.

Facing the breakdown crisis, bulls and bears in the market are engaged in a fierce battle around the core iron bottom of $72,500 to $73,500. Several well-known analysts and traders pointed out that the 200-day moving average (around $73,200) and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the $57,000 to $87,000 upward wave ($72,581) constitute the most critical defense line at present. In addition, CoinAnk data shows that the $72,850 to $74,700 range has accumulated an extreme long liquidation cluster with a peak of up to $289 million.

However, the gain or loss of the 50-week moving average still gave technical analysts a cold sweat. Doctor Profit warned that the 50-week moving average is the last line of defense for the bull market; if it cannot be effectively reclaimed, the previous rally from $57,000 to $87,000 may become a bull trap, and the price could head straight for the Fibonacci golden pocket of $68,000 to $69,000. Ash Crypto, Ardi, and Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan also pointed out that if this week cannot confirm the breakdown as a "fake breakdown," Bitcoin may further probe $66,000 to $70,000 (200-week moving average) or even the $60,000 level in search of buyer liquidity.

However, Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn reassured the market by citing historical data from 2011 and 2019, noting that after a bear market bottom, the first break below the 50-week moving average has never produced a new weekly low. In addition, analysts Saif Trades and Killa firmly believe that the current roughly 16% correction is merely a "higher low" within a bull market, and the long-term outlook remains bullish toward $90,000 or even $180,000.

In the derivatives market, Coinbase's persistent negative premium shows the absence of US spot buying, while 75% of Binance accounts are still blindly long, and CoinGlass's "net short" indicator and spot bid walls have both retreated to the $60,000 level. Trader Stoic pointed out that $76,000 is the current "Gamma flip point"; only by holding above this level with volume will market makers shift from "selling on rallies" to "chasing the trend," thereby opening the door toward $80,000. If it cannot overcome the dense open interest zone of $76,000 to $77,600, Bitcoin will find it difficult to escape downward gravity.

Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can stage a comeback will depend on the performance of US stocks at Monday's open and the US October CPI inflation data to be released on Tuesday. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it will completely cement the door to a Fed rate hike, forcing Bitcoin to test the $72,000 bid wall. Conversely, if inflation cools moderately and is accompanied by a rebound in US stocks, the market may see a strong rally. In addition, the break-even point for miners where mining revenue covers electricity costs (around $70,000) constitutes an invisible support for the market.

Ethereum ETFs suffer consecutive net outflows, ETH falling below the $2,100 mark triggers altcoin liquidity stampede

Ethereum recently suffered a double blow from fundamentals and technicals, with the price briefly losing the key $2,100 defense line and touching a low of $2,060. In terms of capital flows, SoSoValue data shows that spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with outflows of $365 million last week (including $346 million from BlackRock's ETHA). In addition, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed a narrative shift, suggesting that ETH should transition from a "fee-burning token" to a "store of value" asset to address the challenges of the AI era, sparking market discussion about the narrative transformation.

On the technical side, traders generally regard $2,100 as the bull-bear dividing line. Analysts pointed out that ETH needs to quickly reclaim $2,210 or even $2,300 in the short term, otherwise it could easily probe the $2,000 psychological level. Despite market pressure, on-chain "smart money" has begun to position against the trend. Lookonchain monitoring shows that a whale withdrew 34,600 ETH (about $73.75 million) from Binance within 3 hours, and multiple large holders intensively bought more than 23,000 ETH in the $2,149 to $2,155 range.

The altcoin market also experienced a brutal shakeout, with USDT's market share surging to 7.25%. The Threshold Network (tBTC) cross-chain bridge, previously affected by a Linux vulnerability, has recovered, but about $120 million of the reserve pool on Aave remains frozen. In addition, Meme trading platform XXYY announced it will shut down at the end of November, Web3 task platform Galxe will integrate into Gravity L1 and shut down its old services; Animoca Brands announced a pivot to AI agents and Web3 digital ownership infrastructure.

On the political and protocol upgrade front, although crypto super PAC Fairshake achieved a 92% win rate in the midterm elections, regulatory clouds still loom. The market will subsequently pay close attention to the progress of the Ethereum EIP draft regarding "versioned opcode gas repricing." If ETH cannot hold the life-or-death defense line of $2,000 to $2,100 this week, the altcoin market may face a new round of deep deleveraging liquidation.

Today's Highlights:

• This Week's Preview | US October CPI release; Hyperliquid ecosystem L2 network Elysium launches mainnet
• Data: ALLO, AZTEC and other tokens will see large unlocks worth over $10 million this week
• Hyperliquid ecosystem L2 network Elysium launches mainnet
• Coinbase will suspend BAL and TNSR trading
• Kamino (KMNO) unlocks about 229 million tokens, worth about $9.1 million
• Collector Crypt (CARDS) unlocks about 59.26 million tokens, worth about $18.4 million
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.282 billion last week, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with net outflows of $1.209 billion
• Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $365 million last week, six consecutive weeks of net outflows
• Spot HYPE ETFs saw net outflows of $15.6168 million last week, the third highest in history
• Spot XRP ETFs saw net outflows of $529,500 last week
• Spot SOL ETFs saw net outflows of $26.2521 million last week

Today's top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap: PEPE up 5.6%, RENDR up 4.9%, ARB up 3.7%, QNT up 3.2%, NIGHT up 1.3%.

Tech stock discount era叠加黄仁勋桃色风暴，Asia-Pacific stocks see ice and fire

Affected by Silicon Valley's "political and ethical storm," the South Korean stock market experienced severe turbulence. The KOSPI index surged intraday but was infected by Nvidia's overnight plunge, ultimately closing down 0.79%. The South Korean market is heavily dependent on the semiconductor supply chain. The personal scandal of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and the resulting rumors of external independent review directly hit supply chain sentiment, causing Samsung Electronics to sharply narrow its intraday gains; SK Hynix also weakened and faces the blood-draining pressure of two leveraged ETFs linked to it being liquidated and delisted around this Thursday. Nomura's Lu Ting team warned that the US "blue wave" blocking data center approvals will end the cloud giants' frenzy of hoarding chips, directly puncturing Asia's gray market GPU and HBM premium bubble of up to 200% to 300%, which undoubtedly casts a heavy shadow over South Korean tech stocks as the "IPO cornerstone investor new rules" take effect this Friday.

The Japanese stock market, on the other hand, moved independently under the logic of currency depreciation and domestic recovery, with the Nikkei 225 closing up 2.33% and the TOPIX surging 3%. The yen fell to a low near 158.49 against the dollar, greatly stimulating profit expectations for Japanese export manufacturers and auto leaders. Although the Nvidia incident disturbed some semiconductor equipment sectors, the strong capital-attracting effect of traditional industrial giants such as Toyota and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, as well as low-valuation financial stocks, helped Japanese stocks reverse last week's weakness of following US stocks lower. Nomura research reports believe that the current strong momentum in Japanese stocks mainly comes from upward revisions to EPS expectations brought by yen depreciation, as well as regional rebalancing of global funds amid the AI shock in US stocks.

The Hong Kong stock market traded in a narrow range below water all day, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.13% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.92%. Infected by overseas selling sentiment in the computing hardware sector, Hong Kong semiconductor and tech internet stocks fell broadly, with Meituan down 6.53%, Kingboard Laminates down 9.21%, and Xiaomi and Alibaba under slight pressure. However, news that Alphabet is considering issuing HKD bonds equivalent to $1 billion to $1.5 billion in Hong Kong boosted some liquidity confidence.

The A-share market, by contrast, staged a bottoming-out rebound driven by domestic demand and new concepts, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.32% on shrinking volume, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index edged down 0.27%, and total market turnover reached 1.49 trillion yuan. The market showed clear risk-aversion and thematic divergence: boosted by a 36.6% surge in the October PPI for the coal mining industry and a 35% jump in the oil and gas extraction industry, coal and gas sectors led the gains, with Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power and Shengtong Energy triggering a wave of limit-ups; on the tech growth side, Apple's open-source humanoid robot control system HALO, which calls Alibaba's Qwen model, achieved a 91% task success rate on the Unitree G1, igniting a wave of limit-ups in humanoid robots, with Shangwei New Materials and Xiangming Intelligent hitting the 20CM limit-up and Unitree Technology soaring over 9%; meanwhile, the photovoltaic and lithium mining and other energy metal sectors, which had previously posted huge gains, saw capital take profits and fell sharply. Founder Securities' strategy noted that against the backdrop of external expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and rampant overseas tech black swans, domestic policy arrangements for stabilizing the market mechanism are pushing capital toward defensive pro-cyclical domestic-demand sectors and low-valuation self-controllable sectors.