Global Payments Weekly｜2026W45｜November 2–8, 2026
Author / Editor: WANG TAI
1. This Week's Highlights
The most important change this week is that stablecoin usage and outstanding supply moved in opposite directions. Circle disclosed on November 4 that third-quarter USDC on-chain transaction volume rose 49% year over year, while circulation at quarter-end was flat; in the week ended November 7, total stablecoin supply fell by another roughly $6.7 billion. The issuance model that relies on reserve interest is being diluted by the high turnover of payments.
The first signal is that bank on-chain settlement has entered round-the-clock operation. On November 2, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority upgraded EnsembleTX to 7×24 real-value transactions, and Standard Chartered launched tokenized deposits the same day.
The second signal is that emerging markets are pulling issuers back to local jurisdictions. A new rule from the Central Bank of Nigeria effective November 5 requires dollar stablecoins to be issued through locally licensed entities with paid-in capital of no less than 15 billion naira.
The third signal is that remittance companies' stablecoins remain in the back office. Western Union said USDPT circulation is about $20 million, and Remitly said stablecoins account for only about 1% of consumer cross-border payments.
Of the three items flagged last issue, Hong Kong Fintech Week brought the EnsembleTX upgrade but no new stablecoin licenses; neither Western Union nor Remitly disclosed stablecoin payment volume in their quarterly reports; Binance began restoring withdrawals in batches from November 1, and withdrawals had still not fully resumed by the weekend.
Key Data
| Indicator | Data | YoY / MoM | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDC on-chain transaction volume | $13.9 trillion, Q3 2026 | +49% YoY | Circle quarterly report basis; quarter-end circulation $73.9 billion, flat YoY |
| Total stablecoin supply | $292.3 billion, November 7, 2026 | −$6.7 billion for the week (−2.2%) | DefiLlama basis; of which USDT −$3.1 billion, USDC −$1.3 billion |
| Remitly remittance volume | $24.4 billion, Q3 2026 | +25% YoY | Remitly quarterly report basis; active customers 10.3 million in the period, +17% YoY |
2. Key Events
| No. | Event | Domain | Impact | Related Parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | On November 5, the Central Bank of Nigeria's new stablecoin rules took effect, requiring naira and foreign-currency stablecoin issuers to have paid-in capital of no less than 10 billion and 15 billion naira, respectively. | Regulation / Nigeria | Foreign-currency stablecoins must be issued through locally licensed entities; offshore licenses cannot substitute; existing institutions must submit applications within 180 days. | Stablecoin issuers, exchanges and OTC service providers, cross-border remittance companies |
| 2 | On November 2, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority upgraded EnsembleTX to 7×24 real-value transactions, and Standard Chartered launched tokenized deposits for corporates the same day. | Crypto / Hong Kong | Interbank tokenized deposits can be settled around the clock in central bank money, improving weekend and cross-time-zone transfer efficiency; trials of regulated stablecoins have not yet begun. | Banks, corporate treasuries, asset managers |
| 3 | On November 2, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange sought comments on new current-account foreign exchange rules, proposing to extend payment institutions' foreign exchange business to market procurement and comprehensive foreign trade services. | Traditional / Mainland China | Licensed payment institutions can serve more transaction types, but the rules are still in consultation, and banks' authenticity review responsibilities increase accordingly. | Cross-border payment institutions, banks, foreign trade enterprises |
| 4 | On November 4, Circle released third-quarter results: USDC on-chain transaction volume rose 49% YoY to $13.9 trillion, while quarter-end circulation was flat YoY. | Crypto / United States | Reserve income fell 8% YoY, decoupling issuer revenue from payment usage; revenue sources are shifting to payment networks and public blockchains. | Stablecoin issuers, distribution platforms, payment service providers |
| 5 | On November 3, Binance released a preliminary investigation report: affected assets totaled about $6.34 billion, of which $2.85 billion had been frozen or intercepted, and withdrawals were being restored in batches. | Crypto / Global | Binance said it had self-funded 98% of the affected assets; there is still no return procedure for frozen funds, and exchange liquidity remains tight. | Exchanges, stablecoin issuers, payment companies holding tokens |
| 6 | On November 4, Western Union and Remitly released third-quarter results: Western Union revenue fell 2% YoY, while Remitly remittance volume rose 25% YoY to $24.4 billion. | Traditional / United States | Digital channels continue to divert revenue from agent locations; Western Union uses USDPT for round-the-clock settlement with agents, reducing funds tied up without changing the customer entry point. | Remittance companies, agent locations, receiving-end wallets |
3. Impact Analysis
Traditional Payments
Western Union's third-quarter revenue fell 2% YoY, yet brand digital business transaction count rose 21%. Remittance growth is almost entirely online, and online revenue per transaction is lower, so the fixed costs of agent locations can only be absorbed by compressing settlement funds—which is precisely why Western Union lets agents settle around the clock via USDPT. The advantage of branch density will continue to give way to capital turnover efficiency.
Hong Kong has extended interbank tokenized deposit settlement to round-the-clock operation, and SAFE proposes to allow payment institutions to serve market procurement and comprehensive foreign trade services. The former lets banks keep corporate funds on their own books to complete weekend transfers, while the latter lets payment institutions enter trade collection and settlement that was originally handled by banks. Banks hold the treasury entry point, while payment institutions gain more small and medium-sized foreign trade merchants.
Crypto Payments
Circle's third-quarter on-chain transaction volume rose 49%, circulation was flat, and reserve income fell 8%. Payments make the same stablecoin turn over faster without increasing the balances on which issuers earn interest, so issuers can only seek revenue from network services and public blockchains. For payment companies, minting, redemption, and access that are free today are more likely to be priced separately in the future.
Nigeria's new rules require foreign-currency stablecoins to be issued through locally licensed entities with paid-in capital of no less than 15 billion naira, and prohibit paying interest to holders. Issuers' compliance costs expand from reserve management to setting up entities in each market. Small markets may not be worth a separate license, and local on/off-ramp service providers must either switch to local naira stablecoins or bear the risk of reselling unlicensed tokens themselves.
4. Recommended Actions
| Audience | Recommended Action | Indicators to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate treasuries and cross-border collection institutions with accounts in Hong Kong | Confirm with the account-opening bank whether it has connected to EnsembleTX round-the-clock settlement, verify the account-opening conditions, available currencies, and weekend transfer limits for tokenized deposits, and select one intra-group cash pooling path for testing | Number of banks connected to round-the-clock settlement; launch timing of the HKMA stablecoin trial |
| Licensed payment institutions serving mainland China foreign trade merchants | Against SAFE's consultation draft, check item by item the differences between the authenticity review materials for market procurement and comprehensive foreign trade services and existing e-commerce processes | Release date of the formal notice; detailed rules for nationwide rollout of cross-border trade foreign exchange receipt and payment facilitation on January 1, 2027 |
| On/off-ramp and remittance companies with stablecoin business in Nigeria | Check whether the issuers of the dollar stablecoins used intend to apply for a local foreign-currency issuer license, and work backward from the two deadlines of 30-day registration and 180-day application submission to prepare their own license materials | List of first batch of licensed issuers; CBN enforcement cases against OTC dealers |
| Payment companies using stablecoins for settlement positions | Recalculate the turnover days and per-transaction costs of USDC and USDT settlement positions, and ask issuers about their pricing plans for network access, redemption, and public blockchain fees | Circle payment network annualized transaction volume; weekly stablecoin supply |
5. What to Watch Next Week
Covering November 9–15, 2026.
| Item | Time | Verification Method | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline for Western Union's agreement to acquire Intermex | November 10, confirmed | Western Union announcements and regulatory filings | If California regulatory approval is not restored, either party may terminate the agreement, determining which tier of Western Union's 2026 revenue guidance applies |
| European Banking Authority begins direct supervision of USDC | November 12, confirmed | EBA press releases, Circle disclosures | How reserve and capital requirements for the first "significant" e-money token are enforced, affecting USDC's issuance costs in Europe |
| South Korea's government draft of the Digital Asset Basic Act submitted to the National Assembly | Within November, recommended to track | Financial Services Commission announcements, National Assembly bill system | Whether won-denominated stablecoins are restricted to issuance by bank-led consortia, determining whether payment companies can participate in issuance |
6. In-Depth Observation｜USDC Transaction Volume Rose by Half While Circulation Stayed Flat—Who Is Making Money from Stablecoin Payments?
This Week's Evidence
On November 4, Circle disclosed that USDC on-chain transaction volume in the third quarter was 13.9 trillion USD, up 49% year-over-year; circulation at quarter-end was 73.9 billion USD, flat year-over-year. Reserve income fell 8% year-over-year to 658 million USD, but total revenue grew 17% to 865 million USD, supported by 207 million USD in other income, of which 182 million USD came from the ARC token pre-sale. Circle's payments network annualized transaction volume was 41.3 billion USD. At its earnings call, Western Union said USDPT circulation was about 20 million USD, yet transaction volume every 30 days was 150 million to 200 million USD; Remitly said stablecoins account for only about 1% of consumer cross-border payments.
How the money flows, who charges fees
An issuer's revenue equals reserve balance multiplied by yield, regardless of how many times the token changes hands. The characteristic of payments is precisely that money does not stay put: remittance companies mint stablecoins to pay agents, and agents redeem them quickly; one token can turn over multiple times in a month, yet the balance left in reserves is very small. Western Union's stock of about 20 million USD supported seven to ten times that in monthly transaction volume. The larger the payments business, the thinner the interest the issuer earns from each dollar transacted, and the right to charge fees shifts to the links that process transactions.
| Link | Form of funds | Customer ownership | Fees and risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minting and reserves | Fiat currency deposited into reserve accounts in exchange for stablecoins | Issuer | Issuer earns reserve interest; revenue varies with balance and yield, unrelated to transaction volume |
| Payments network and public chains | Stablecoins transferred between institutional wallets | Issuer or public chain operator | Charges network fees or gas fees per transaction, bears operational and compliance screening responsibilities |
| Remittance and payment companies | Stablecoins as in-transit settlement positions | Remittance or payment company | Earns FX spreads and handling fees, saves prefunded capital, bears liquidity risk at the time of redemption |
| Local payment and redemption | Stablecoins converted back to local currency for deposit or cash withdrawal | Agents, wallets and banks | Charges payment and FX fees, bears local licensing and anti-money laundering responsibilities |
What it means for both sides
For traditional payment institutions, stablecoins are first and foremost a settlement tool, not yet a new customer entry point. Remittance companies use them to shorten settlement cycles with agents, while customers, pricing and last-mile payments remain in the existing system; the local exchange, licensing and cash withdrawal networks that Remitly emphasizes have not been replaced. For crypto payment companies, issuers are no longer satisfied with interest income; Circle is betting its growth on the payments network and its own public chain, and today's free minting, redemption and cross-chain transfers may in the future be charged per transaction.
What evidence is still missing
Circle has not disclosed the fee standards and revenue of its payments network, so it is impossible to judge how much revenue the 41.3 billion USD annualized transaction volume can translate into; the 13.9 trillion USD on-chain transaction volume does not distinguish payments, trading and internal transfers; the ARC token pre-sale is one-time income; Western Union's USDPT figures come from the company's own statements.
How to verify
Watch three things: whether Circle separately reports payments network revenue next quarter; if reserve yields continue to decline, whether USDC circulation remains flat while transaction volume continues to rise; whether the ratio of Western Union's USDPT monthly transaction volume to circulation can be maintained, and whether it can expand from two Latin American agents to more markets.
7. Global developments
Singapore: On November 4, HSBC, JPMorgan Kinexys, MUFG Bank, Societe Generale FORGE and Standard Chartered announced the establishment in Singapore of the non-profit organization GL1 Org, taking over the tokenized market infrastructure standards work initiated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This week Pyvio announced it had obtained the Monetary Authority of Singapore's major payment institution license, effective November 1.
Japan: On November 2, a Financial Services Agency study group discussed whether to adjust the 1 million yen transfer cap for stablecoins and whether banks themselves can directly issue stablecoins, with no conclusion yet.
UAE: On November 6, Visa's acceptance platform began supporting online transactions of the UAE local card scheme Jaywan, allowing merchants to accept its debit, credit and prepaid cards online.
Germany: On November 4, B2B payments company Pliant announced the completion of an 80 million USD Series C funding round, to be used for entering the United States and Canada.
This article is compiled from public reports and institutional announcements; the analysis and recommendations are the views of the editorial team.
